Nepal Sees Major Fluctuation in Paddy Production Over the Years

Nepal’s paddy production in recent years has shown both growth and decline, heavily influenced by unpredictable weather, monsoon patterns, and resource limitations. According to data from fiscal year 2017/18 (2074/75 BS) to 2021/22 (2078/79 BS), the country experienced its lowest paddy yield during the 2021/22 season.

The usual harvesting period for paddy starts around October 18 to 20 (2078 Kartik 1–3). However, unseasonal rainfall accompanied by storms severely impacted crops that year, leading to a production shortfall of 500,000 metric tons compared to 2020/21 (2077/78 BS).

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While 2021/22 (2078/79 BS) saw favorable weather, only 5.13 million metric tons of paddy were produced—down from 5.62 million metric tons in 2020/21. This marked a decline of nearly 491,000 metric tons.

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Area Increased but Productivity Dropped

Though the area under cultivation increased by 4,000 hectares, productivity fell by 9.09%, with the average yield shrinking to 3.47 metric tons per hectare.

In contrast, 2024/25 (2081 BS) saw paddy production rise to 5.7 million metric tons. All provinces, except Gandaki, experienced a decline in 2021/22 compared to the previous year. Sudurpaschim Province saw a 31.49% drop, while Lumbini Province reported an 18.38% decrease.

Interestingly, the production of Chaite Dhaan (spring paddy) increased by 0.33%, reaching 4.68 metric tons per hectare.

Long-Term Trends and Historical Production Records

Nepal has been celebrating National Paddy Day for 18 years now in mid-June (Asar 15). Despite this, the country’s average productivity is just 3.5 metric tons per hectare, significantly lower than the global average of 4.7 tons, according to FAO (2018).

In fiscal year 2018/19 (2075/76 BS), favorable monsoon conditions led to a 12–13% rise in production, reaching 5.61 million metric tons, compared to 5.15 million metric tons in 2017/18 (2074/75 BS)—a 9% growth.

Yearly Paddy Cultivation Statistics

Fiscal Year (BS)	Paddy Area (Hectares)	Production (Metric Tons)
2072/73	1,362,908	4.3 million
2073/74	1,552,496	5.23 million
2074/75	1,469,545	5.15 million
2075/76	–	5.61 million
2077/78	–	5.62 million
2078/79	–	5.13 million
2081	–	5.7 million

Approximately 50% of Nepal’s arable land is used for paddy cultivation. Due to its mountainous terrain, the country heavily relies on rain-fed irrigation, making it highly vulnerable to monsoon variability.

Challenges in Achieving Rice Self-Sufficiency

Though paddy output increased after 2015, Nepal still faces a rice supply deficit. Despite producing 412,000 metric tons more in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18, it still fell nearly 1 million metric tons short of national demand.

The import bill for rice remains high—around NPR 20–24 billion in 2017/18 alone. In just the first four months of 2018/19, over NPR 12 billion worth of rice was imported.

Achieving self-sufficiency would require a production boost of 1.3 million metric tons.

Fertilizer Crisis and Climate Impacts

Nepal requires 700,000 metric tons of chemical fertilizer annually, yet supply consistently meets only half the demand. In 2018/19, the government allocated NPR 6 billion for fertilizer procurement.

Moreover, urban land plotting is rapidly decreasing available farmland. In years of inadequate rainfall, many districts have had to leave fields fallow. Floods in several river basins have also submerged paddy fields in recent years.